Why gold is overpriced right now...

I wanted to make a logical argument as to why I think gold is overpriced right now...

Source : RBI

Gold has given a 40 year return of about 13% p.a. Now compare the returns over the decades.
In the first decade under study the prices appreciated from 200 to 1522 Rs per 10 gm.
Then in the next decade prices were a little over double from 1719 to 2452 Rs. Then in the next decade prices remained quite stagnant and finally, the last decade saw prices shoot up from about 4579 Rs in 2001-02 to about 30,000 at present.

So clearly the last decade has seen an unprecedented rise in gold prices. This shows that a bubble is in the making. Right now the market folk are screaming to people to buy gold and invest in gold ETFs. But as the saying goes that too much of anything is a bad idea. Then quite frankly this is a red signal for the careful investor.

(This was a very naive and crude way to prove my point. If I get time I will add a more rigorous explanation)